Donald Trump Abruptly Posts ‘Unhinged’ Iran Threat — Here’s Why the 25th Amendment Odds Just Skyrocketed

Amid rumors of Donald Trump being rushed to Walter Reed Hospital, there has been growing talk about the possibility of the U.S. President being removed from his position. Over the weekend, more people started placing bets on prediction markets about whether this could really happen.

On the prediction platform called Kalshi, people focused on the 25th Amendment, which allows top government officials to remove a President if they believe he is not fit to do the job. And based on Trump's recent health scares, and tensions around the Iran war increasing, U.S. citizens believe there's a possibility of Trump being removed from office.

According to the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the Vice President and Cabinet members are allowed to remove a President if they believe he cannot do his job properly. So, based on this law, prediction platform Kalshi hosted a contract titled, “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?”

It allowed traders to buy “Yes” or “No” shares, asking users to bet on whether the 25th Amendment could be used during Donald Trump’s current term. So far, since the past month, the chances for a “Yes” outcome have gone up from 28.6 percent to 35.1 percent. Back in January 2025, the number was just 15 percent.

While it shows the highest level of bets against Donald Trump since his second term began, it seems that people are giving their votes, based on recent controversies surrounding the President. These include Trump’s health scares, his posts about rising tensions with Iran, and strong comments about global conflict.

On Easter Sunday, Trump issued a message on Truth Social about the war, filled with harsh language and warnings. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F*****’ Strait you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in —JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, following the rise in polls, the question remains, can the 25th Amendment actually remove Donald Trump? So far, Rep. Melanie Stansbury, Senator Chris Murphy, and a few others have asked the Cabinet to think about using the law, calling Trump’s Easter post “completely, utterly unhinged.”

However, it is to be noted that the 25th Amendment has never been used to remove a sitting President in the history of politics. It has mostly been used for short-term power transfers during medical emergencies. Which means, there's a low possibility of Trump being removed based on this law.

Further, the invocation of the 25th Amendment would require Vice President JD Vance and most Cabinet members to agree. This makes this process even more difficult and filled with legal and political challenges. In addition, Trump and Vance share a close working relationship, with Vance acting as a key trusted advisor to the President.

Although they have their differences regarding the Iran war, it seems unlikely that Vance would agree to remove Trump from his position. However, while nothing can be known for sure about Trump's future as the U.S. President, tension remains high ahead of the mid-term elections and global crises.