Trump is currently the favorite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Trump Named Betting Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize After 2025 Snub
May 1 2026, Updated 5:19 p.m. ET
President Donald Trump is currently the favorite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. This comes months after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado received the award instead of Trump.
British bookmaker William Hill has set Trump’s odds at 3/1 for this year’s prize, according to The Independent.
The company noted that Trump is in the lead, even though the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not verified if he is among the 287 candidates being considered for the 2026 award.
Trump claims he ended eight wars around the world.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we see Trump as the leading contender for this year’s award,” said William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps, per the report.
The bookmaker's estimate gives Trump a 25% implied chance of winning, which is a decrease from the 55% probability quoted late last year, the report states. This change comes as Trump maintains that he deserves the award for his foreign policy record, despite challenges his administration faces with the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
On Thursday, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced it received 287 nominations for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organizations. According to Reuters, Trump is likely among the candidates, based on public claims from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan who stated they nominated him.
Nobel rules prevent the release of nomination records for 50 years, and the committee does not confirm nominees to the media or the candidates. Usually, public reports about nominees come from those who submitted nominations or from the candidates themselves.
Hegseth believes the Pentagon is a force of peace.
The winner for 2026 will be announced on October 9, with the ceremony set for December 10 in Oslo, Reuters reported.
Trump has consistently claimed he should receive the Nobel Peace Prize pointing to his role in international negotiations, arguing that others have received the award despite what he considers his achievements as a peacemaker.
“I know it doesn't sound right for me to say this, but I'd love my legacy to be recognized as that of a great peacemaker, because I truly believe I'm a peacemaker,” Trump said, according to The Independent. “It doesn't seem like it right now, but I think I'm a peacemaker.”
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize went to Machado “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,” as stated by the Nobel Prize organization.
Trump's supporters had advocated for him to receive the 2025 prize. After Machado's victory, Trump and his backers portrayed the decision as another missed chance to acknowledge his efforts in resolving international conflicts.
She later dedicated her award to him and met the president in the White House after the capture of Nicholas Maduro.
The renewed betting activity also follows FIFA's separate peace award. Reuters reported that the White House defended Trump's receipt of FIFA’s inaugural peace prize in response to criticism from human rights groups and soccer figures.
The White House argued that Trump deserved the honor for what it described as his “Peace through Strength” foreign policy.
Despite the politics, the final decision lies with the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee.
The committee reviews nominations submitted by qualified nominators, which include lawmakers, heads of state, former laureates, certain academics, and others specified under Nobel rules.
For now, Trump's status as a potential nominee remains unverified under Nobel rules but there will likely be a firestorm of backlash considering his unpopular war in Iran that’s risen prices globally.