Data Expert Warns of ‘Nightmare’ Scenario for Donald Trump as Democrats Gain Ground in Senate Race

A data expert has signaled troubling news for Donald Trump and his MAGA administration.

CNN's chief data correspondent, Harry Enten, appeared on Erin Burnett OutFront on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, where he revealed that the Republicans’ odds of keeping their majority intact in the Senate may be diminishing with each passing day, a potential nightmare for the president.

According to reports, Enten said, “It’s bad. It’s like a nightmare for the Republicans. The Democrats just keep gaining and gaining and gaining when it comes to the Senate odds.”

The data guru referred to the Kalshi prediction market, which showed a 54% chance that the Democrats will emerge victorious in the Senate as of 6:30 pm on Wednesday.

The number has increased from 33% on Jan. 1. Explaining how Democrats have the upper hand, the data expert said, “Democrats haven’t just gained on Republicans, they actually have the majority chance at 54 percent, and that’s fairly close to a toss-up.”

He added, “We all thought that the House was gonna go to the Democrats, but the Senate as well? Oh, boy. My goodness gracious.” Enten cited the Cook Political Report released this week, which shifted four key races in the Democrats’ favor.

Enten also revealed that North Carolina and Georgia shifted from toss-ups to leaning Democratic, with North Carolina looking especially favorable for the Democrats. He also suggested that a Trump-friendly state like Ohio might be leaning.

The reporter said, “How about Ohio—a state that Donald Trump won by double digits? From lean GOP to toss-up, with the likely Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, the former senator.”

Talking further about Nebraska, he said, “And then Nebraska—Nebraska hasn’t elected a Democratic or a non-Republican since 2006, but went from solid Republican to likely Republican.”

Enten explained how the Democrats have a 54% chance of taking over the United States Senate. The expert said, “Democrats are gaining in many different seats across the political map, putting new states into play, and that’s the reason why, at this point, they have a 54 percent chance of taking over the United States Senate.”

He then went on to focus to another important demographic, voters who have incomes under $50,000. On this, he said, “You look at Ohio, right? You think of the working class, right? You think of those who, perhaps, have incomes less than $50,000.”

Enten revealed the low approval rating of Donald Trump which only hints at a dwindling popularity of the President. He said, “His approval rating at the beginning of his second term was +2 points—down he goes, into the smithereens, now at -34 points on his net popularity rating.”

The data expert added, “That’s an over 35-point shift in only about a year plus a few months’ time. No wonder all these states are in play.” Trump’s approval ratings declined during his second term.

Some of the issues that plagued his second term was the inflation faced by the Americans due to his tariffs, rising gas prices due to his decision to wage a war in Iran and his name being embroiled in the Epstein files.